Experience with declining enrollment and school closures

Declining enrollment is currently affecting nearly fifty percent of all school districts in the state of California. It causes some very real facilities headaches, not to mention all of the challenges it brings in the areas of budgeting, staffing, etc.DDP has worked closely alongside district staff to address the very real facilities issues, be they boundary re-alignment, or even more extreme measures such as school closures.

One of the real advantages of recent GIS technology is the ability to clearly see where the decline is coming from. Often, a school district may be in decline in one or more areas, while other parts of the district are very stable, or perhaps even growing. Low birth rates can contribute to declining enrollment, and it’s important to analyze the “bubbles” that regularly pass through district enrollment. Is an upswing imminent? Was the recent peak in enrollment actually the bubble and the district is now returning to a more realistic enrollment? These issues can be analyzed, and there are answers to be found. We have the ability to analyze future population projections at-large, and to study recent home sales, and their effect on mobility factors and student generation rates. SchoolSite Redistricting for ArcGIS helps to make attendance boundary realignment more data-driven in terms of decision making for an otherwise emotional hot-button issue. And ultimately, if school closure must be looked at as a necessary option, DDP has both the expertise and the experience on that issue. We realize that the demographics affecting school closure is a vital consideration, but not the only issue. Fiscal questions, as well as the facility itself, certainly come into play, but knowing all the facts demographically enhances the decision-making process. Consideration must be given to future walk distances, to socio-economic implications, and the effects on magnet programs at any campus. We help school districts make the right choices.